VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Result & Analysis

VfB Stuttgart beat Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–1 in the Bundesliga. Below is the model's pre-match call on this fixture, published before kick-off, and the analysis behind it.

Our Pre-Match Prediction

Before kick-off the model gave — VfB Stuttgart: 64%, Draw: 15%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 21%. Predicted scoreline was 3–1 (confidence 64%).

The model favours VfB Stuttgart (64%) at home: they create 2.0 goals/game and Bayer 04 Leverkusen are leaking goals (1.9 conceded/game). With home advantage, projected around 3.2–1.9.

Head to Head

VfB Stuttgart and Bayer 04 Leverkusen have met 5 times in the records we hold.

31 Oct 2026 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–4 VfB Stuttgart (2026/2027).

Scorers: Ermedin Demirovic 14', Jamie Leweling 22', Patrik Schick 28', Bilal El Khannouss 51'.

9 May 2026 — VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (2025/2026).

Scorers: Aleix García 1', Ermedin Demirovic 5', Deniz Undav 58'.

10 Jan 2026 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–4 VfB Stuttgart (2025/2026).

Scorers: Jamie Leweling 7', Jamie Leweling 45', Deniz Undav 45'.

16 Mar 2025 — VfB Stuttgart 3–4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (2024/2025).

1 Nov 2024 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–0 VfB Stuttgart (2024/2025).

Over the last 5 meetings VfB Stuttgart hold the edge (3W · 1D · 1L), with VfB Stuttgart winning 3 of 5 (60%) and averaging 2.8 goals per game.

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This Week's Conviction

More on VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Win Probability & Scorelines · Model vs Market · Model Picks · Match Story · Starting Lineups · Referee Stats · Forecast & Player Stats · Head-to-Head Record.

Every VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen call above was published before kick-off and is graded in our public record, win or lose. Predictions are model estimates for information and entertainment only.