FC Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid: Result & Analysis
Real Madrid beat FC Barcelona 2–1 in the La Liga. Below is the model's pre-match call on this fixture, published before kick-off, and the analysis behind it.
Our Pre-Match Prediction
Before kick-off the model gave — FC Barcelona: 45%, Draw: 22%, Real Madrid: 33%. Predicted scoreline was 2–1 (confidence 45%).
The model favours FC Barcelona (45%) at home: they create 3.0 goals/game but Real Madrid defend well (0.7 conceded/game), which tempers the edge. With home advantage, projected around 1.9–1.6.
Head to Head
FC Barcelona and Real Madrid have met 5 times in the records we hold.
25 Oct 2026 — FC Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid (2026/2027).
Scorers: Kylian Mbappé 41', Raphinha 61', Kylian Mbappé 87'.
10 May 2026 — FC Barcelona 2–0 Real Madrid (2025/2026).
Scorers: Marcus Rashford 9', Ferran Torres 18'.
26 Oct 2025 — Real Madrid 2–1 FC Barcelona (2025/2026).
Scorers: Kylian Mbappé 22', Fermín López 38', Jude Bellingham 43'.
11 May 2025 — FC Barcelona 4–3 Real Madrid (2024/2025).
Scorers: Kylian Mbappé 14', Eric García 19', Lamine Yamal 32', Raphinha 34'.
26 Oct 2024 — Real Madrid 0–4 FC Barcelona (2024/2025).
Scorers: Robert Lewandowski 54', Robert Lewandowski 56', Lamine Yamal 77', Raphinha 84'.
Over the last 5 meetings FC Barcelona hold the edge (3W · 0D · 2L), with FC Barcelona winning 3 of 5 (60%) and averaging 2.4 goals per game.
Explore
More on FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid: Win Probability & Scorelines · Model vs Market · Model Picks · Match Story · Starting Lineups · Referee Stats · Forecast & Player Stats · Head-to-Head Record.
Every FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid call above was published before kick-off and is graded in our public record, win or lose. Predictions are model estimates for information and entertainment only.